NVDA Earnings, Fed Cut Odds, and the Market's Next Move

📊🚀 Tomorrow’s NVDA Earnings Could Shake the Entire AI Market ⚡

Fed cut odds soar as gold holds, oil slips - but all eyes are on Nvidia's high-stakes report tomorrow.

📝 Editor’s Note

This week, the spotlight is on two major market movers: Nvidia’s earnings and Federal Reserve policy expectations. With NVDA set to report tomorrow and Fed cut odds running high, we’re at a pivotal moment for both AI-driven stocks and broader market sentiment.

📈 AI-Driven Market Outlook

• Nvidia in focus. Options imply a massive potential swing in market cap around Wednesday’s results; analysts expect ~53% year-over-year revenue growth to about $46B.

• Fed cut odds elevated. Futures currently price in an ~86% chance of a September 25 bps rate cut.

• Mixed market tone. Gold remains firm near $3,378/oz, while WTI crude trades around $64/bbl as the dollar eases.

🔎 Live Ticker Snapshot

NVDA - Earnings due after Wednesday’s close.

SOXX (Semis ETF) - Hovering near 52-week highs, mirroring NVDA’s influence on the sector.

XLE (Energy) - Slightly weaker alongside crude prices.

OKLO - Recently upgraded with a $92 price target, benefitting from AI-aligned nuclear energy optimism.

💡 Strategy Spotlight: Post-Earnings Breakout (PEB)

A straightforward approach for trading large-cap earnings:

1. Catalyst: Earnings beat + bullish forward guidance.

2. Confirm: First close above the intraday gap high on above-average volume.

3. Risk: Stop 3-4% below the breakout zone.

4. Manage: Scale partial profits at +6-8% and trail the remainder under the prior day’s low.

Why now? NVDA’s results often trigger sympathy moves in semiconductors and AI-related equities.

🚀 Watchlist

• NVDA - Watch for breakout or fade behavior after earnings.

• SOXX - Key for capturing sector-wide semiconductor momentum.

• XLE / Crude - Oil weakness could slow energy leadership.

• OKLO - Riding sentiment from fresh analyst coverage.

🛠 Tools & Resources

• TradingView AI Scripts - Custom Pine Script indicators enhanced with AI logic for real-time alerts.

• Finviz Elite - Advanced stock screener with technical and fundamental filters to spot AI setups.

• Barchart Premier - Unusual options activity and sector heatmaps powered by AI scanning.

• TrendSpider - Automated chart pattern detection and strategy backtesting.

• SentimentTrader - AI-enhanced sentiment models to gauge market mood shifts.

🎯 Quick Actions (Next 72 Hours)

• Build two NVDA scenarios: Breakout-continuation and Gap-fade, with defined entry and stop levels.

• For sympathy trades, ETFs like SOXX can be safer than chasing individual names.

• Keep position sizes small until post-earnings direction becomes clear.

🧠 Final Thought

AI is still the market’s headline theme, but the real edge comes from measured risk-taking and waiting for confirmation. Let the numbers - and the price action - lead the way.

Vaulting Your Wealth Forward,
– T. D. Thompson

AI Investing Vault

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