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NVDA Just Shocked Wall Street Again - Here’s What the Data Really Says

The AI boom isn't slowing - but the numbers tell a very different story than the headlines. NVDA, MSFT, AMAT, BOTZ & SCHD all just dropped data you need to see.

✍️ Editor’s Note

The AI trade is still dominating markets, but the story has gotten more complicated: blockbuster earnings on one side, bubble fears and spending concerns on the other. In this issue, we’ll look at what the latest numbers actually say about a few key AI names and ETFs, then plug them into a simple framework you can adapt for your own portfolio.

All data points below are from recent earnings releases, fund fact sheets, and mainstream coverage as of late November 2025.

The AI Insights Every Decision Maker Needs

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🔍 AI Market Pulse

NVIDIA (NVDA) just reported record quarterly revenue of $57.0 billion, up 22% from the prior quarter and 62% year over year. Its Data Center segment alone delivered $51.2 billion, up 25% sequentially and 66% year over year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure.

On the latest calls and coverage, management and analysts highlighted that orders for its Blackwell and Rubin AI chips through 2026 could surpass around $500 billion, underscoring how deep the current AI build-out is.

Microsoft (MSFT) reported revenue of $77.7 billion for the July–September 2025 quarter, up 18%, with profit up 22%. Its cloud segment grew 28% to $30.9 billion, and Azure’s growth was around the high-30s percentage range. The company is also spending nearly $35 billion in the quarter, much of it on AI-related chips and data center capacity, which has started to worry some investors about the long-term payoff of this spending.

Applied Materials (AMAT), a major supplier of chipmaking equipment, reported record fiscal 2025 revenue of $28.4 billion and guided for about $6.85-6.9 billion in revenue next quarter. Management explicitly tied part of this strength and guidance to AI-driven demand for wafer fab equipment, even as they flagged weaker China spending due to U.S. export controls.

Taken together, recent data says: the AI infrastructure build-out is still very real, but the market is increasingly focused on how long this pace can last and whether valuations already price a lot of it in.

📈 Watchlist: Data-Backed AI & Income Tickers

These are not recommendations, just examples of tickers with recently reported, AI-relevant or portfolio-stabilizing fundamentals:

• NVDA - NVIDIA

  • Record Q3 FY26 revenue: $57.0B, with $51.2B from Data Center.

  • Management and external analysis suggest chip orders for Blackwell and Rubin families could exceed $500B across 2025-26.

• MSFT - Microsoft

• Quarterly revenue $77.7B, up 18%; profit up 22%.

• Cloud revenue grew 28% to $30.9B, with Azure growth near 40% in the latest quarter, underscoring how much AI is flowing through cloud platforms.

• AMAT - Applied Materials

• Fiscal 2025 revenue $28.4B; company describes itself as “in a tremendous position” as AI computing drives secular growth in semiconductors and wafer fab equipment.

• BOTZ - Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

• BOTZ invests in companies that stand to benefit from increasing use of robotics and AI, including industrial automation, non-industrial robots, and autonomous vehicles.

• As of early November 2025, commentary notes BOTZ is one of the larger robotics ETFs with over $3 billion in assets under management.

• SCHD - Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

  • SCHD tracks a Dow Jones index designed to measure high dividend-yielding U.S. stocks with a history of consistent dividends.
    

  • As of September 30, 2025, its largest sector weights were Energy, Consumer Staples, and Health Care - with Information Technology under 10% of the portfolio.

This mix gives you: pure AI infrastructure (NVDA, AMAT), AI-exposed cloud (MSFT), a robotics/AI basket (BOTZ), and a dividend-oriented ballast (SCHD) to contrast the growth names.

🛠 Tool of the Week: Koyfin

If you’re building an AI-augmented research workflow, you still need clean, structured data underneath it.

Koyfin is a financial data and analytics platform that lets investors research stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, macro data, commodities, and bonds, with dashboards, charting, and fundamental snapshots.

You can use it to:

• Pull historical financials & valuation multiples

• Screen for dividend payers vs. high-growth names

• Build watchlists to feed into your own AI prompts or tools

💬 Steal-This-Prompt (Ticker Research)

Here’s a prompt you can drop into ChatGPT or any LLM to structure your research on one of the tickers above:

You are an equity analyst building a concise research brief.

For ticker {TICKER}, using the latest available public data:
1) Summarize recent revenue and profit growth (last 1–2 quarters).
2) Explain any reported AI-related drivers (e.g., data centers, cloud, chip equipment, robotics).
3) Describe the company’s main risks mentioned in recent news or filings.
4) Compare its valuation (P/E, P/S if available) to sector peers.
5) List 3–5 key metrics or events an investor should watch next quarter.

Output in bullet points, with separate sections for “Growth Drivers,” “Risks,” and “What to Watch.”

This keeps your AI output tightly focused on fundamentals instead of generic commentary.

⚠️ Risk Radar: AI Boom vs. Bubble Fears

Recent coverage has started highlighting two big tensions:

1. Valuations & bubble concerns

   • Nvidia’s earnings have reinforced the view for many analysts that the AI boom is still in its early stages, yet some investors and institutions are warning about AI bubble risk and lofty valuations.
     

   • Nvidia’s market cap has surged roughly 300% over two years and has briefly crossed the $4 trillion mark, which naturally raises questions about how much future growth is already priced in.
     

2. Massive AI capital spending

   • Microsoft’s quarter showed nearly $35 billion in capital spending, much of it dedicated to AI-related chips and data centers. While revenue and profit are growing strongly, the scale of this investment has made some investors uneasy.

For AI-focused investors, that means watch both earnings AND the sentiment around “is this too much, too fast?”

🧩 Strategy Snapshot: “AI Core + Stabilizers”

Here’s a simple, conceptual framework you can test for yourself (not investment advice):

• AI Core (Growth Bucket)

  • Examples: NVDA, MSFT, AMAT, BOTZ

  • Idea: Capture exposure to AI infrastructure (chips, fabs) and AI platforms (cloud, robotics).
    

• Stabilizers (Income / Diversification Bucket)

  • Examples: SCHD or similar dividend ETFs

  • Idea: Balance AI cyclicality with dividend-oriented, sector-diversified holdings that have different drivers than pure AI spending.

The numbers tell you AI is a genuine secular driver right now - but the bubble chatter tells you not to bet your whole future on one theme.

📚 Case Study: NVIDIA as an AI Infrastructure Barometer

From the latest quarter:

• Revenue: $57.0B, up 62% YoY

• Data Center revenue: $51.2B, up 66% YoY and 25% QoQ

• Forward commentary: demand for Blackwell and Rubin chips could total roughly $500B in orders through 2026, according to management remarks cited in recent coverage.

At the same time, global reporting notes that:

• Tech and AI stocks have led a huge portion of major index gains, and

• Some asset managers (such as DWS’s CEO) are openly comparing the environment to prior bubbles, even as they acknowledge AI’s long-term importance.

So NVDA isn’t just “a stock” - it’s a real-time gauge of how far investors are willing to extrapolate AI growth.

✅ How to Double-Check Any AI Signal

Whenever your AI tools, scanners, or alerts flag a name:

1. Read the latest earnings release (like the NVDA or MSFT examples).

2. Check 1-2 mainstream news summaries of that report.

3. Look at valuation vs. sector (P/E, P/S, or EV/EBITDA).

4. Ask: “Is this story primarily AI-driven, or are there other drivers?”

5. Decide where it fits: AI core, stabilizer, or avoid for now.

If the story, numbers, and valuation all line up with your risk tolerance, you’ve got a much stronger case than “AI hype alone.”

🧾 Final Thoughts

Latest data makes one thing clear:
AI isn’t a narrative anymore - it’s in the income statements.

But the same data also shows:

• Heavy concentration in a few names

• Enormous capital spending

• Growing debate over valuations

Use AI to organize, summarize, and stress test the numbers - not to replace them. That’s how you turn an AI boom into a disciplined investing process instead of a speculative bet.

Data and examples current as of late November 2025. Always re-check key figures before you trade.

Vaulting Your Wealth Forward,
– T. D. Thompson

AI Investing Vault

The content above is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Trading and investing involve significant risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use of AI tools and strategies mentioned above is at your own discretion and risk. AI Investing Vault may receive compensation if you purchase tools or services mentioned in this email, at no additional cost to you.